It was a regular Monday.
Or so I thought.
The birds were chirping, car horns were blaring and then the news hit **BAM!! POW!** kind of like in those Batman Comics.
Spread all over the news was that Retailer Forever 21 had filed for chapter 11 bankruptcy.
The US is now on pace to having a record 12,000 store closures by the end of 2019.
The reason Forever 21 bankruptcy filing stings so much is that the retail sector has lost nearly 200,000 jobs since the start of 2017.
It seems as if the retail sector is having its own market correction. So many businesses were in a constant state of new store openings, ribbon cutting, and champagne toasts that they failed to stockpile any cash for a rainy day.
With many consumers maxed out after all that easy credit flowed like champagne, it is now time for companies to pay the piper.
However, it not just that companies are bleeding cash due to heavy rents and debt obligations. There also is this little thing called a trade war going on. The trade war between the United States and China isn’t helping any. But if we really think back, most retailers put themselves in this vulnerable position by spreading themselves too thin.
Chasing after never ending profits in the quest for the retail equivalent of the holy grail: increased annual revenues.
Think Subway’s $5 footlong. The world’s largest fast-food chain closed more than 1,000 stores last year (Subway closed 1,100). Subway started its restaurant purge in full force in 2016, when it had more US closures than openings for the first time in its history. It said it plans to keep closing restaurants as it tries to become more profitable.
There is also a restaurant apocalypse going on as many as closing including Pizza Hut, as they are getting out of the sit-down restaurant business. It’s becoming a strictly carryout and delivery pizza chain, like Domino’s and Papa John’s.
However, these companies boxed themselves into a corner. What happens when easy credit dries up and customers are no longer willing and able to shop? It’s kind of like that scene in Indiana Jones. You know the one I’m talking about.
As most companies have no leverage with creditors after a bankruptcy filing, in many cases they lose equity or control over their companies.
Like what happened to American Apparel. The owner went public and was rewarded handsomely with hundreds of millions in stock. Once the company filed bankruptcy in 2011, share prices went from as high as $15.80 in 2007 to being worth less than 80 cents. The owner had over 800,000 shares of his stock and pretty much 100 percent of his net worth locked up in the company. I’m guessing he never heard of a company called Enron. If so, I doubt he would have so much of his fortune in just one stock. Anyway, what happened next is just heinous. The owner went from $500 million to $0 in net worth once the company went bust.
Some people have no idea how invested an owner is in a company until the tide goes out and see who is swimming naked, which basically means in heavy debt.
In recent retail headlines, stores such as Gap, Charlotte Russe, WetSeal, DEB, Rue 21, Gymboree, Charming Charlie, and Toys’R’Us have all thrown in the towel. What makes Forever 21 stand out in this sea of closures is that the retailer is still owned by the founders. However, they too are having profits squeezed by online shopping and e-commerce giants Amazon and Walmart.
Most retailers in these modern times in the age of Instagram are turning more to debt and becoming highly leveraged as a result. This hurts businesses in the long run. Those who manage to avoid piling on too much debt and stay lean are the ones who manage to stay open and profit.
According to Jeff Spross, avoiding the clutches of private equity can make or break a company. For example, after being bought by a trio of private equity companies in 2004, Toys ‘R’ Us’ debt burden rose from $2.3 billion to $5.2 billion in 2017, while its cash stockpile shrank from $2.2 billion to $301 million.
Simply put, private equity firms take the companies cash in the form of fees and replaces it with debt. Once retailers are unable to sustain the high interest payments on this new debt that was supposedly needed in order to expand operations, then the business goes under.
This wave of bankruptcies is therefore not a coincidence as many retailers were highly leveraged but didn’t file for bankruptcy until the interest kicked in and the bills came due starting in 2019, which will continue through 2025.
The retail chopping block is brutal as store closures can hurt stock prices, brand loyalty, consumer confidence, and retailers bottom lines. For instance, many companies are notifying employees in some cases only days before store closures.
That was the case with Dean & DeLuca in Georgetown as they were riddled with debt and couldn’t pay their vendors. The company was so backed up on rent that it racked up $96,000 in back rent and started get hit by lawsuits from angry suppliers. One funny line in this NY Post article read “Can’t afford that $45 box of cookies at Dean & DeLuca? Neither can Dean & DeLuca.” The domino effect and trickle-down economics also lies in the fact that vendors may go out of business due to Dean & DeLuca’s failure to pay them thus putting more employees out of work and out of a job. The company knew it was bleeding money for years, but only informed employees of its closure less than 72 hours before closing up shop for good. Some of these employees had been with the store since it opened in 1993. After 25 years, these employees got no severance. To add insult to injury, they also defaulted on some employee salaries, which is a double-whammy; no paycheck and no job.
This let’s you know that the employee is the sacrificial lamb that gets slaughtered when a retailer takes all the money out of a company. This feels reminiscent of the rumblings I heard about WeWork before their failed IPO.
According to Scott Galloway, WeWork had numerous red flags:
My goddaughter informed me she’s dating a club promoter, a red flag. Occasionally, red flags marry each other, the Biebs and Hailey Baldwin — what could go wrong? So now, imagine red flags the dimensions of Kansas. Buckle up:
— Adam Neumann has sold $700 million in stock. As a founder, I’ve sold shares into a secondary offering to get some liquidity and diversify holdings. Ok, I get it. But 3/4 of a billion dollars? This is 700 million red flags that spell words on the field of a football field at halftime: “Get me the hell out of this stock, but YOU should buy some.”
— Gross margins are a pretty decent proxy for how good or bad a business is. And this is a sh**ty business.
When the CEO (Neumann) wants to sale so many shares, it gives me pause to wonder why? If you don’t believe in your business (they never turned a profit), then why should I?
One retailer that managed to avoid debt, store closures, and heavy job losses due to avoiding debt and private equity is Best Buy.
Therefore, it is a simple recipe, kind of like KFC’s Kentucky Fried Chicken 11 herbs and spices with a secret ingredient (white pepper in case you were wondering), that will keep retailers or yourself out of the evil clutches of debt. I will share it with you. No debt + tons of cash = solvency.
You cannot go bankrupt if you owe no one.
You can put that last sentence on my tombstone. Like Drake and 2 Chainz, when I die bury me inside the casket that paid for with cash, put my money in the grave because in the next life I’m trying to stay paid. But seriously, I’d rather you expand your business or wealth portfolio slowly with cash than quickly with debt.
Always remember that patience is not only a virtue, but it is how you can avoid debt through delayed instead of instant gratification, which is how you get and stay rich.
My goal here is to help you along your wealth journey. I hope this post helps you do just that. You are not alone. Have a question? Drop me a line.
And as always, if the retail apocalypse comes…
