Please excuse the clickety-clack of my keyboard while I type ferociously thus, breaking the eloquent silence of God and nature.
As I write this the U.S. is in the midst of a global health pandemic. The Coronavirus has caused worldwide panic the likes of which I have never seen.
What is being labeled as Black Monday 2020, March 9, the Dow’s worst single-day point drop in U.S. market history. A record $20.2 billion has been pulled from stocks on March 13, the largest daily outflow ever.
This is different from the financial crisis of 2008-09, as it was a mortgage crisis not a health crisis then, but this is now what will likely lead to a financial and housing crisis. The economy has gone into a recession.
There were 3.3 million unemployment applications submitted last week alone. They are estimating 3.5 million submissions next week.
Over 500,000 workers across the hospitality, retail, and restaurant sectors have been furloughed indefinitely.
Store shelves are bare and low on necessities. Milk, bread, and eggs are some of the first items to go. Toilet paper is now the currency of the realm.
Schools, churches, libraries and hair salons are closed. It is pretty certain that millions of small businesses will close and never open their doors again.
Many large retailers may become insolvent and close their doors permanently.
Rent strikes are popping up all over the country in response to stay-at-home and shelter-in-place orders from state governors. However, it is April 1st and the rent is due.
As all of this is going on around me, I have to make a judgment call.
My hand is hovering over the buy button in my 401(k) account. My inner voice is saying go for it. You did the math. You did like financial blogger FIREcracker said and I mathed shit up! I knew I could come out ahead when the markets rebound. Stocks are on sale. I’m going down to the mat with the bear market. I’ve been here before and come back up every time. I take a deep breath and hit submit.
I have now bought over a hundred shares of various stocks as of March 31. Before, the market started crashing I transferred over $84,000 out of multiple stock funds and placed my bet on one Vanguard 500 index fund over the last two years. Why you ask? I’m taking my cues from a historical data approach and a sprinkle of Buffet wisdom.
Back in 2013, in a letter to shareholders, Buffet gave a piece of advice to the trustee of his estate after he passes, “wife’s inheritance has been told to put 90% of her money into a stock index fund and 10% into short-term government bonds.”
A portfolio set for a 90/10 allocation over a period from 1900-2014 had a fail rate of 2.3%. That means a success rate of 97.7%! Therefore, I am not scared.
Others are panicking, but I choose to keep a cool head. My investing advice is sprinkle some Buffet on it. It’s the wild west out here. I could place a huge bet and get my wings clipped like Icarus for traveling too close to the fire of the market. After all, it is a fire sale on stocks going on right now.
However, I can’t let fear stop me. I have weighed the risks. And decided to take those calculated risks.
You see I have 100 years of stock market knowledge behind me. Past results do not guarantee future results, but whenever history turns it backs on the market, then during the rally the market turns it back on you.
Those who do not feed the beast are later consumed by it. Financial literacy has been my guiding light in these dark times we suddenly found ourselves in.
I have been thrown in a cave with the bear market, but like Yogi, I have learned to be smarter than the average bear.
Some of you may be surprised that I am using Yogi Bear as inspiration to invest, but let’s not forget he always seemed to outsmart Ranger Smith and get that coveted picnic basket.
Therefore, fear will not take me under for I have knowledge my friends. And knowledge is the slayer of fear. While Buffy slays vampires, I slay market gyrations.
I like to take Buffet’s advice to bet on America. He says, “From a standing start 240 years ago — a span of time less than triple my days on earth — Americans have combined human ingenuity, a market system, a tide of talented and ambitious immigrants, and the rule of law to deliver abundance beyond any dreams of our forefathers.”
Yes, indeed America has.
That is incredible growth for a country that was just started with 13 original colonies in 1607 to become the biggest economy in the world, as other civilizations are far older than America.
It must have felt the same way for Neal Armstrong when he took those first steps on the moon for mankind in 1968.
That is incredible growth to go from walking on the ground, to the rocket, to the moon considering less than 70 years ago man had just learned how to fly in a little place called Kitty Hawk.
And when I threw open my personal finance go-to book, it looks as if I am not the only one who calls on the sage advice of the finance world’s Obi-Wan.
I found that financial blogger J.D. Roth of Get Rich Slowly also listens to the man they call “The Oracle of Omaha” Warren Buffet.
Here is an excerpt from the 2009 New York Times best-selling book I Will Teach You to be Rich: No Guilt. No Excuses. No BS. Just a 6-Week Program That Works by Ramit Sethi. The blog post was titled: HOW TO WRESTLE WITH A BEAR—AND WIN Why I’m Not Worried About the Economy.
Wall Street is fear-stricken it will have banks and businesses go under and lose countless millions in the process.
Main Street is panicked that it can’t make rent to pay Wall Street.
When Wall Street head honcho and real estate billionaire Thomas Barrack Jr. speaks of commercial mortgages being on the brink of collapse, you spark panic all around you.
Mr. Barrack of Colony Capital predicts a “domino effect” of catastrophic economic consequences without prompt action to keep borrowers from defaulting.
I know that may keep some people on the bench, but I prefer to keep swinging for the fences.
You’ll never get a hit from the dugout.
Millionaires are made of Teflon. They keep betting when the house is cleaning up. They just keep on swinging. You miss 100% of every shot you don’t take.
I once remember reading that millionaire’s know they are made by saving ten bucks at a time.
Pundits are instilling fear when they should be telling long-term investors to stay the course. The wealthy know better. They keep investing because that’s what winners do.
Millionaires are smarter than the average bear.
