Reading the Stock Market Tea Leaves

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“Patience and perseverance have a magical effect before which difficulties disappear and obstacles vanish.” —John Quincy Adams

Stocks are down and housing prices are up. We have seen a shift in way consumers are spending. Mortgages are in. High-priced stocks are out.

Although the stock market has had an astounding run since the Pandemic began in March 2020, it is the acquisition of housing has most Americans chomping at the bit.

The US has minted more than half the world’s new millionaires over the last few years as investments in equities and tech stocks propelled assets higher. Real estate, is generally considered to be a more stable investment than volatile stocks or fluctuation cryptocurrencies and is a tangible asset. Real estate investing has also created 90% of the world’s millionaires.

However, not too far behind is stocks as nearly 70% of their wealth gains over the past year and a half have come from market gains. The wealthiest 1% know this. That is why they own 89% of all US stocks.

Those at the top of the economic food chain know the wealth comes from the owning of assets. The top 1% own a lot of stock my friends. And those at the bottom of the economic pyramid own so little. Meaning they are not keeping up with the rise of inflation and their purchasing power is steadily decreasing.

The dollar in their pocket is worth less now than it was yesterday. This means you are able to afford less at the grocery market and to purchase other consumer goods. For example, the cost of a pound of brisket was listed as $9 a pound. My sister sent me a screenshot of a 9.67 pound of brisket in her grocery store. The cost: $87.

I am sure somewhere my grandmother is looking down upon us and thinking that the family may very well have to turn vegetarian or severely cut back on meat consumption. I know grandma, I know.

According to Pew Research, the Consumer Price Index, the most widely followed inflation gauge, increased 7.0% from December 2020 to December 2021 – its highest rate in nearly 40 years. Families are spending $30 more per week at the local grocery store or farmer’s market. An increase in prices also mean less that is being invested and saved.

The price of lumber has increased by 288% making the cost of homes go up by an average of $36,000. The average new car price is now $47,000. As of 2021, the average monthly car payment in the US is $575 for new vehicles and $430 for used vehicles.

newcarprice

When I put these numbers in my compound interest calculator, it informs me that if I can invest either one of these amounts monthly for 30 years, I can become a millionaire. Therefore, I have come to the conclusion that new cars are wealth stealers and must be avoided at all costs. Rejecting new cars has made me richer. Things have gotten so far out of whack for the average household that people have begun to put groceries and gas on credit! This an absolute no-no. Building wealth requires cash.

Even if using OPM – other people’s money – you still have to bring some cash to the table to invest in index funds or put a down payment on a home. You must have capital to work with if you want to build wealth.

And companies are all too happy to part you from this wealth whether you have some or not. Case in point, I recently looked up the Kelley Blue Book value of my car. I just wanted to know what it was worth. Little did I know that this information gets sent over to local car dealerships who within mere seconds of me inquiring started sending me a barrage of solicitations for my business to put me into a new car.

I know very well that the average car payment is over $500.

These salespeople are looking to increase their monthly sales quota. I continue to get offers to get me into a new car by email, phone and text over the next week.

At this point, my Spider-sense is tingling. Why are folks still calling me after a week? I get it. Business is all about sales. They make fat commissions of us folks once we sign on the dotted line.

I prefer to keep my money where it is; in my pocket.

Just for kicks, I decide to look up the cost of food, housing and cars from the last 30 years.

Solved: Cost of Living The table at the right shows the average pr... |  Chegg.com

After doing all of this research, I have come to the conclusion that the future is going to be expensive.

THE COST OF BUYING A HOUSE OVER 30 YEARS | Bike Friday

Therefore, it is unwise to use credit for present consumption with yet unearned future dollars.

We can prepare for the increases in living expenses by investing our dollars today. Don’t believe me. Just take a look at all the charts I provide in this article.

Numbers don’t lie.

The constant outflow of discretionary dollars on basic cost of living has consistently gone up. The cost of homes, education, cars, gas, and food are going through the roof!

I truly feel that incomes have not kept pace with the cost of homes and education. Equity may have increased, but so has the cost of homes.

In 1976, the cost of Harvard University tuition was $3,740. In 2019, it was $54,002. How can they justify it? It is almost like that owl in the how do we get to the center of a Tootsie Pop commercial: the world may never know.

r/Damnthatsinteresting - 1976 cost of living.

This is a mystery that I do not even think Scooby-Doo and the gang could solve no matter how many Scooby snacks Velma has in her back pocket.

Scoobydoo Whereareyou GIF - Scoobydoo Whereareyou Thegang - Discover &  Share GIFs

I do not say these things to scare you. I am merely your jedi money guide on this journey. I want you to invest.

Own your primary residence and buy those index funds.

As the stock market goes down, buy the dip. Buy low. Get those high returns to sell high.

I did this back in 2013 when I bought shares of Apple (AAPL) for $258. The stock went on to split twice. Once for a 4-for-1 basis on August 28, 2020, a 7-for-1 basis on June 9, 2014. Prior to each split the stock was trading well over $500. It was $656 in 2014 and $656 in 2020.

It went from a billion-dollar company to a $2 trillion-dollar one. At the time of this writing, it is hovering around a $3 trillion-dollar market cap. Off a small one-time investment, I made tens of thousands of dollars.

And that small home that was purchased years ago. It has increased in value over $100k. The equity has gone up by over $100,000 and counting. That is why we invest my friends. So we can keep earning money in our sleep. Our money can work without taking vacations or sick leave. We can’t.

So here is your homework for this evening. I want you to find a home you would like to buy and a stock you would like to purchase. Figure out how much of a down payment or initial but in you will need. Divide this amount by how long you think it will take you to save up these funds.

For example, the VTSAX has a minimum initial investment of $3k. You decide you want to but this investment in a year. Therefore, you divide $3,000/12 months = $250. That is how much you must save every month to but this index fund. Doing the math will allow you to slowly build your dreams.

Let us not forget the wisdom of one of the greatest investors of all time: Warren Buffet. He reminded us that American living standards advanced seven fold in the 1900s, while the Dow rose from 66 to over 11,000. The Dow now stands at 34,934.27 today in 2022. “The model has worked well for America. If you look at all these disparate businesses, such as if you looked at the Dow Jones as a single entity… (though it rotated)… but going from 66 to 11,000 is doing something right. Owning a group of good business isn’t a bad plan.” Yes, owning is good for your pocketbook in the long run. Now I want you to go out and get some assets.

But before you do here is some more Buffet wisdom, “Only buy something that you’d be perfectly happy to hold if the market shut down for 10 years.” And lastly, “The stock market is a no-called-strike game. You don’t have to swing at everything — you can wait for your pitch.” Patience is key. It will take you to the promised land of financial independence.

When I read the tea leaves on the stock market, I see it rising to 100,000.

Why you ask? A little research.

The Dow Jones industrial average index (DJIA) opened in 2018 just shy of 25,000 on Jan. 2, and a little over two weeks later it already had topped 26,000. The DJIA would need to rise by 20% to hit 30,000. We did that. As reported by Kigplinger, the DJIA has enjoyed an annualized increase of 7.33% since 1950, based on Yahoo Finance historical data. Therefore, the DJIA will double every 10 years (9.82 years, to be exact). If we continue at our 1950-2017 pace, the DJIA index will double, or hit 50,000, in 10 years.

If a $100,000 in the market at a 10% return will net you $1,000,000 in 30 years, then you can become a multi-millionaire with help of the stock market. And that excludes housing equity. So get out there and start putting your dollars to work.

Millionaires know that you get rich by saving $20 bucks at a time.

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